Bombings in Egypt Signal Expanding Militant Capabilities

Source:
Stratfor
Date of source:
24 Jan 2014
Reference:
Summary
Four explosive
devices detonated in
and around Cairo on
Jan. 24. The first of
these, a large
vehicle-borne
improvised explosive
device placed in front
of the Cairo Security
Directorate that killed
four and injured 50,
was the most
significant. Any coordination among the four bombings would represent an
increase in tactical sophistication among the militant groups behind the
attacks. Such attacks are likely to increase in tempo and destructiveness, and
Cairo will struggle to contain the Salafist-jihadist threat.
Analysis
The bombings occurred on the eve of the third anniversary of the start of the
uprising that led to the downfall of former President Hosni Mubarak and hours
after a Police Day celebration recognizing the Egyptian military.
The Security Directorate explosion
in particular signifies a significant
escalation in militant capabilities.
The device was located in a car
placed 5 meters (about 16 feet)
from the outside gates of the
security headquarters, according security headquarters, according
to an Egyptian Interior Ministry
spokesman. The powerful device
caused substantial damage to the
building's facade and to
surrounding structures, including
the Islamic Museum. Due to
concrete barriers surrounding the Security Directorate, the device could not be
parked closer, preventing greater damage to the headquarters. Security
camera footage from the museum showed the streets were nearly deserted
and that there was very little activity at the headquarters at the time of the
attack, limiting the death toll.
The second device was rudimentary by comparison; it detonated hours later
near a police vehicle parked by a metro station in Giza, which borders Cairo,
resulting one death. The third bombing took place near a police station in the
Talbiya district of Giza near the pyramids outside Cairo, but caused no injuries.
The fourth bombing also occurred in Giza, this time in the Haram district near
a movie theater, killing one person and wounding seven. Though the three
subsequent bombings were much smaller and far less destructive than the
first, they still are important given that they occurred within hours of each
other and in close proximity, suggesting possible coordination.
In the only claim of responsibility for any of the attacks, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis
said it carried out the Security Directorate bombing. The group has been active
in Egypt for several years, conducting multiple bombings and attacks in the
Sinai Peninsula beginning in 2011. Prior to former President Mohammed
Morsi's ouster, the group primarily targeted Israel or Israeli interests on the
Sinai Peninsula. Like many Salafist-jihadist groups in the country, the group
began to target Egyptian security forces after the 2013 removal of Morsi. In
September of that year, it targeted the Egyptian interior minister with an
improvised explosive device in a failed assassination attempt in Cairo. Later, it
carried out a bombing at the intelligence directorate headquarters in Islamiya
in October and a bombing at a police compound in Mansoura in December. The
most recent attack appears to be part of the same bombing campaign. Ansar
Beit al-Maqdis is the only Egyptian militant group that has demonstrated the
intent, capability and resources to conduct large-scale destructive attacks on
the Egyptian mainland.
Although large-scale attacks are more rare, the removal of the Muslim
Brotherhood motivated fledgling groups of jihadists and radicalized Islamists to
act on the mainland. These groups increasingly are able to act on this desire,
though they presently lack the expertise and access to materials more
hardened jihadist groups in Sinai possess. 
To date, these attacks have involved small explosive devices and small arm To date, these attacks have involved small explosive devices and small arms,
and have not produced high death tolls, casualties or significant structural
damage. It is likely that some of these individuals will link up with more
experienced groups such as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, or perfect their own
tradecraft over time to produce larger and more destructive attacks. Militants
in Egypt are also aided by the huge quantities of unsecured ordnance and
explosives in neighboring Libya.
At this time, militants in Egypt cannot derail the election set for March that is
likely to see Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi win the presidency. But despite its
probable victory in this election cycle, Egypt's military and security forces will
struggle against an expanding and increasingly sophisticated jihadist
insurgency spreading in mainland Egypt. The frequency and size of the attacks
probably will steadily increase. Should the groups begin to strike with more
coordination, the already tenuous state of security in Egypt will decline even
further.