Estimates about religious adherence; an inconvenient truth

Language: 
English
Sent On: 
Thu, 2022-06-30
Year: 
2022
Newsletter Number: 
20

In 2006 former US Vice President Al Gore released a documentary film about global warming called An Inconvenient Truth. It is inconvenient because it meant we humans need to change our lifestyles and thus we rather deny a specific truth that is inconvenient to us than accept it.

We find inconvenient truths in many other areas of life. Donald Trump was not able to accept the inconvenient truth that he had lost the 2020 US presidential elections and started lying and bullying others who disagreed with him.

 

Coptic Orthodox Church leadership has had for decades difficulties accepting that their numbers in Egypt are much smaller than they have claimed during the past decades. Coptic population estimates range between 5,09 % of population to 21,9% of population. Enough research has been done to discredit seriously inflated estimates. This includes the Christian organization Open Doors that claims that Christians make up 16% of the population and links this to persecution. Of course, when one claims a population of “just over 16%” and one does not find this reflected in higher positions of government one is of course bound to find ‘persecution.’ Of course, persecution is not only linked to the percentage of Christians in Egypt, but it is one part of the argument that has been used.

 

The 2021 Report on International Religious Freedom in the Arab World by the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. government, claims that “most experts and media sources estimate that approximately 90 percent of the population is Sunni Muslim and 10 percent is Christian.” It is just what you choose to read. It is interesting to compare the reporting about demographics. Earlier they reported 8% Christian and in 2016 they wrote approximately 10% with estimates ranging from 5 percent to 15 percent. The statement in their 2021 reports and their earlier statements indicate that the Report on International Religious Freedom is not only about facts but about being politically correct. They know that if they would report the more likely percentage based on CAPMAS data that they would be fiercely criticized by their Coptic constituency in the US.

 


CAPMAS logo

 

Writing about Christian population figures is not popular in Christian circles, especially not among the more Evangelical and conservative groups. It is therefore extremely important that the International Association of Mission Studies (IAMS), a larger international network of both academics and church representatives, has allowed me to speak at their forthcoming international conference in Sydney about these statistics. Find the paper I wrote for this conference here.

 

Religious population figures are deeply sensitive, not only in Egypt but also in, for example, Lebanon. This became clear, for example, at the European –Arab Conference, “The Contribution of Religious Minorities to Society,” launching event of the academic exchange program between the University of Vienna and higher education institutions in Lebanon and the Arab World, July 1-3, 2013, Vienna, Austria. I presented a paper of the political use of statistics of Christian minorities. Estimates are inflated and used to claim underrepresentation of Christians in the highest government positions and a violation of human rights. Prof. Dr. Berge Traboulsi (Trabūlsī) of Haigazian University, Beirut, then responded emotionally and openly in the conference that of course Christians in the Middle East exaggerate, as all Arabs do, he argued, but no one should highlight this since this would be harmful he believed. Along these lines, investigation should not serve objective reporting, but it should select truths that are convenient in helping Christians in the Middle East best. Prof. Traboulsi’s view is certainly not shared by all Middle Eastern Christians as was also clear during the conference, but it is troubling that not only political activists but also a scholar holds such views.

 

It is, of course, hard for Middle Eastern Christians that their communities are shrinking but exaggerations definitely do not only come from Christians. Tunisian blogger Ragheb Chaiben reported that the 2021 Report on International Religious Freedom in the Arab World provides other politically correct figures. The percentage of Christians, Jews, Shīʿa Muslims and nonbelievers is claimed to be less than 1 percent of the Tunisian population. Tunisia is a deeply secularized country, in particularly in the north and the percentage of nonbelievers is substantial. Percentages on religious affiliation in deeply religious countries are sensitive.

 

It is sad that the Report on International Religious Freedom and Open Doors find it necessary to give priority over political and ideological considerations over reporting truth. They would do better to report facts and seek other arguments to boost their considerations.

 

 

June 30, 2022

Cornelis Hulsman, Editor-in-Chief Dialogue Across Borders